Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
